Week 6 gave the impression to be a time for a number of heavy favorites to shine. That didn’t occur.
The NFL’s solely undefeated groups, the 49ers and Eagles, each went down, falling to the Browns and Jets, respectively. The Chiefs stayed shut of their sport in opposition to the Broncos. The Payments required a goal-line cease on the ultimate play of the sport to beat the Giants.
On paper, the video games in Week 7 seem to have loads extra thrills. It begins with an intriguing matchup between the Jaguars and Saints, whereas the early afternoon window on Sunday will see matchups just like the Falcons and Buccaneers and Ravens and Lions. Rams-Steelers and Chiefs-Chargers spotlight the late afternoon slot earlier than one of the thrilling video games of the season, with the Dolphins heading to Philadelphia to face the Eagles.
Every week, Sporting Information’ mannequin will mission each sport within the NFL 10,000 occasions to generate the variety of occasions a group wins a matchup and calculate the win likelihood. The mannequin adjusts after every week because it learns extra about every group and that group’s quarterback.
Listed for every sport is its projected unfold, in response to the mannequin, and a group’s win likelihood. We have additionally included up to date playoff and Tremendous Bowl odds on the backside. The chances listed with every sport usually are not based mostly on bookmakers, however relatively how the mannequin sees the sport enjoying out. We’ll then evaluate the mannequin’s odds with these from BetMGM, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week’s video games.
This is how the mannequin sees Week 7 shaping up.
MORE: Join BetMGM to make your NFL Week 7 picks
NFL picks, predictions Week 7
Saints (-1) vs. Jaguars
Win likelihood: 54.8%, Saints
The Saints upset in opposition to the Texans, however after a two-week highway journey, they head again to New Orleans to host the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s offense seems to have woken up after a streaky begin to the season. The Saints’ protection has what it takes to decelerate Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, with the largest query being whether or not Derek Carr and the offense can get going. Each BetMGM agree New Orleans needs to be a 1-point favourite.
Raiders (-3) vs. Bears
Win likelihood: 59.4%, Raiders
The unfold on this sport could be nearer if Justin Fields had been below middle for the Bears. Tyson Bagent, nevertheless, is a special story. Las Vegas’ offense hasn’t been something particular, however its protection has held opponents to fewer than 20 factors in three of its six video games. Chicago is a 3-point underdog by each BetMGM and the mannequin, and it is actually honest to imagine even at dwelling, Bagent and the Bears could have points in opposition to Las Vegas.
Browns (-5) vs. Colts
Win likelihood: 66.7%, Browns
The Browns are contemporary off a shocking victory in opposition to the 49ers, and now hit the highway to face the Colts, who had been demolished in Jacksonville with Gardner Minshew below middle. For now, there may be nonetheless uncertainty whether or not it will likely be P.J. Walker or Deshaun Watson beginning at quarterback for Cleveland, however whatever the quarterback, the Browns needs to be heavy favorites in opposition to Indianapolis. The mannequin has a bit extra confidence in Cleveland, placing them as a 5-point favourite, whereas BetMGM has the Browns as simply 2.5-point favorites.
Payments (-11) vs. Patriots
Win likelihood: 82.7%, Payments
The Payments had been fortunate to flee their “Sunday Night time Soccer” sport with the Giants with the win, surviving a late drive by New York. Heading into Foxborough, they need to be properly poised for a bounceback effort. Buffalo ranks third in each factors scored and factors allowed, whereas the Patriots rank second-to-last in scoring and within the backside 10 in protection. Invoice Belichick has had Buffalo’s quantity in his profession, however this looks like a mismatch, with the mannequin favoring the Payments by 11 and BetMGM having them as 8.5-point favorites.
Commanders (-2) vs. Giants
Win likelihood: 55.5%, Commanders
Perhaps with Daniel Jones at quarterback, the Giants would have higher odds. Perhaps. Tyrod Taylor led New York to only 9 factors in opposition to the Payments, whereas Sam Howell seems to be discovering his footing in Washington a bit extra. Washington’s protection has been gashed for a lot of the season, but when it will possibly construct on the 16-point effort in opposition to the Falcons, it may capitalize on a chilly Giants offense. BetMGM (2.5) has the Commanders favored by a half-point greater than the mannequin (2).
Ravens (PK) vs. Lions
Win likelihood: 50.6%, Ravens
This has all of the makings of an exhilarating conflict. Ben Johnson’s Detroit offense vs. Mike Macdonald’s Ravens protection. Jared Goff vs. Lamar Jackson. The Ravens bounced again from a loss to the Steelers with a London win in opposition to the Titans, however they may face a steeper problem in opposition to the red-hot Lions, who’ve received 4 straight heading into Sunday. The mannequin has this sport as a digital toss-up, giving solely a slight edge to the Ravens, whereas BetMGM provides Baltimore a 3-point edge.
Buccaneers (PK) vs. Falcons
Win likelihood: 51.8%, Buccaneers
It is honest to say each these NFC South groups are searching for a rebound. The Buccaneers had been shut down by the Lions, whereas the Falcons turned the ball over 3 times as Desmond Ridder’s struggles below middle continued. This matchup has all of the makings of a defensive matchup between a pair of strong items. The difference-maker on this shut contest is dwelling discipline, therefore Tampa Bay’s benefit with the mannequin giving the slight proportion odds in a decide ’em. BetMGM is favoring Atlanta by 2.5-points.
Rams (-3) vs. Steelers
Win likelihood: 60.5%, Rams
The Rams have quietly been one of many NFL’s most full groups, rating within the NFL’s prime 12 in each factors scored and factors in opposition to. They’ve misplaced by not more than 9 factors in a sport this season, and are coming off a 17-point win over the Cardinals. Pittsburgh needs to be properly rested earlier than heading out west, however that offense has not appeared to have any solutions to date in 2023, even whereas its protection has been wonderful. The mannequin and BetMGM each agree the Rams needs to be 3-point favorites over Pittsburgh.
Seahawks (-14) vs. Cardinals
Win likelihood: 88.1%, Seahawks
Seattle was bottled up within the crimson zone 4 occasions in opposition to the Bengals in a disappointing Week 6 loss. The Seahawks get a get-well sport developing with a house sport in opposition to the hapless Cardinals, who’ve now misplaced by a minimum of two touchdowns in three straight video games after a shocking win over the Cowboys. BetMGM is giving Arizona significantly extra of an opportunity than the mannequin, with the bookmaker saying the Seahawks needs to be solely 7.5-point favorites whereas the mannequin has Seattle as a 14-point favourite.
Broncos (PK) vs. Packers
Win likelihood: 51.4%, Broncos
This is among the extra intriguing traces of the weak. The Broncos have the worst protection within the NFL by factors allowed, and the offense scored simply eight factors per week in the past in opposition to the Chiefs. The Packers, nevertheless, are coming off a bye after dropping three of their previous 4 video games the place the offense has gone chilly after an enormous season-opening win. On a impartial discipline, the mannequin is taking the Packers, however with the sport in Denver, it’s calling the sport a decide ’em, with a slight lean towards the Broncos. BetMGM goes the opposite path, with the Packers listed as 1-point favorites.
Chiefs (-9) vs. Chargers
Win likelihood: 78.3%, Chiefs
The Chiefs and Chargers have delivered some classics between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Final season, Kansas Metropolis swept the season sequence for the primary time in the identical yr since Herbert arrived within the NFL. Los Angeles has one fewer day of relaxation, and has been a bit streaky this season, having received video games in opposition to the Vikings and Raiders, however misplaced to the Dolphins, Titans and Cowboys. Kansas Metropolis hasn’t been as sharp as it has been in recent times, however nobody will complain an excessive amount of on a five-game successful streak. The mannequin is giving the Chiefs the 9-point benefit at dwelling, whereas BetMGM provides the Chiefs a 5.5-point edge.
Eagles (-3) vs. Dolphins
Win likelihood: 61.7%, Eagles
This one should be thrilling. The Eagles need to bounce again after a dropping effort to the Jets. The Dolphins need to preserve the league’s greatest offense buzzing. Miami will face one of the best protection it has seen all season exterior of Buffalo, a sport wherein it misplaced 48-20, and the competition might be on the highway. The mannequin and BetMGM are comparable in seeing the Dolphins as field-goal underdogs, although BetMGM has the unfold at 2.5 relatively than 3.
49ers (-9) vs. Vikings
Win likelihood: 77.7%, 49ers
San Francisco’s undefeated season glided by the wayside in a wet journey to Cleveland final weekend, however it’ll have an opportunity to bounce again shortly. The 49ers face a Vikings group lacking Justin Jefferson and that simply barely got here out forward of the Bears, who misplaced Fields to damage early. Even in Minnesota, this sport feels lopsided. The 49ers are 9-point favorites within the eyes of the mannequin, whereas BetMGM has San Francisco as 6.5-point favorites.
Up to date NFL projections 2023
AFC East
| Crew | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Convention champion% | Tremendous Bowl champion% |
| Payments | 11-6 | 50.1% | 38.9% | 89.0% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 8.3% |
| Dolphins | 11-6 | 44.3% | 41.3% | 85.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 4.2% |
| Jets | 8-9 | 5.6% | 22.3% | 27.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Patriots | 4-13 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC North
| Crew | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Convention champion% | Tremendous Bowl champion% |
| Ravens | 11-6 | 50.3% | 30.1% | 80.3% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 21.7% | 33.7% | 55.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Bengals | 9-8 | 15.8% | 30.3% | 46.0% | 0.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Steelers | 9-8 | 12.3% | 26.3% | 38.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
AFC South
| Crew | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Convention champion% | Tremendous Bowl champion% |
| Jaguars | 11-6 | 73.4% | 7.7% | 81.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Colts | 8-9 | 7.1% | 11.1% | 18.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Titans | 7-10 | 9.7% | 7.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Texans | 8-9 | 9.9% | 8.6% | 18.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
AFC West
| Crew | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Convention champion% | Tremendous Bowl champion% |
| Chiefs | 13-4 | 95.3% | 3.6% | 98.9% | 64.4% | 49.0% | 24.6% |
| Chargers | 8-9 | 3.6% | 27.3% | 30.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Raiders | 7-10 | 1.2% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Broncos | 5-12 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC East
| Crew | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Convention champion% | Tremendous Bowl champion% |
| Eagles | 12-5 | 66.5% | 31.1% | 97.6% | 22.0% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Cowboys | 11-6 | 33.1% | 58.1% | 91.1% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 5.6% |
| Commanders | 6-11 | 0.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Giants | 5-12 | 0.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC North
| Crew | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Convention champion% | Tremendous Bowl champion% |
| Lions | 12-5 | 91.5% | 6.1% | 97.6% | 20.3% | 15.7% | 7.7% |
| Vikings | 7-10 | 4.9% | 22.8% | 27.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Packers | 7-10 | 3.3% | 21.9% | 25.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bears | 5-12 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC South
| Crew | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Convention champion% | Tremendous Bowl champion% |
| Saints | 10-7 | 61.5% | 15.8% | 77.3% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Buccaneers | 7-10 | 13.3% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Falcons | 8-9 | 24.9% | 20.3% | 45.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Panthers | 4-13 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC West
| Crew | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Convention champion% | Tremendous Bowl champion% |
| 49ers | 13-4 | 92.7% | 6.8% | 99.4% | 48.4% | 43.6% | 25.5% |
| Seahawks | 9-8 | 6.0% | 54.9% | 60.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Rams | 8-9 | 1.4% | 34.0% | 35.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Cardinals | 3-14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
