4th December 2023

The 2022/23 Premier League relegation battle is shaping as much as be probably the most thrilling and nerve-wracking in league historical past.

With a whopping 9 golf equipment throughout the grasps of the relegation zone, a poor run of kind may doom any of these groups and ship them right down to the second-tier Championship subsequent season.

The race options some massive golf equipment with vital historical past as effectively, with Leeds United, Everton, West Ham, and Leicester Metropolis all within the combine. Two of the promoted sides are additionally battling for survival, together with Nottingham Forest regardless of their heavy expenditure throughout each switch home windows.

The Sporting Information offers you an summary of the relegation struggle because it at present stands, what number of factors are required all through the league’s fashionable historical past, and the way this season’s scrap compares to others all through the Premier League’s thrilling previous.

MORE: Up to date Premier League desk, together with an summary of each race

Premier League relegation 2023

There are 9 groups inside seven factors and simply 9-11 matches remaining within the season. 

West Ham moved out of the underside three with an enormous house win towards last-place Southampton, whereas Leicester Metropolis fired supervisor Brendan Rodgers with 10 matches left in an try to spark a revival.

Leeds United are as soon as once more dangerously near the drop zone, dealing with an enormous match towards Nottingham Forest on Tuesday, April Four after which internet hosting Crystal Palace on Sunday, April 9.

Pos Group Factors Matches Performed Targets Scored Objective Distinction Subsequent Match
12. Crystal Palace 30 29 24 -15 @ LEE, April 9
13. Wolves 28 29 23 -19 vs. CHE, April 8
14. West Ham 27 27 25 -9 vs. NEW, April 5
15. Nott’m Forest 27 28 23 -27 @ LEE, April 4
16. Bournemouth 27 28 27 -28 vs. BRI, April 4
17. Leeds United 26 28 36 -12 vs. NOT, April 4
18. Everton 26 28 22 -18 vs. TOT, April 3
19. Leicester Metropolis 25 28 39 -10 vs. AVL, April 4
20. Southampton 23 29 23 -24 vs. MCI, April 8

The underside three groups on Might 28, 2023 can be relegated to the second-tier Championship.

What number of factors to keep away from relegation in 2023?

The 40-point bar to safe security has reached legendary standing within the soccer lexicon, largely as a result of it is a good spherical quantity that is straightforward to recollect. However there’s additionally historical past behind that determine.

Certainly, solely thrice in Premier League historical past has 40 factors not been sufficient to remain up, and none since 2003 when West Ham went down regardless of a 42-point haul. The opposite two events concerned Sunderland in 1996/97 (40 factors) and Bolton in 1997/98 (40 factors).

Nevertheless, most seasons, the bar to remain up within the English high flight is far decrease than 40 factors.

For the reason that Premier League went to 20 groups in 1995/96, the typical level whole of the 18th place crew has been 35.2, which means 36 factors has usually been sufficient to safe security. To be slightly extra cautious, since 2000, 37 factors has been sufficient to retain Premier League standing on all however 4 events.

This season, that is proper round the place the bar is more likely to be, given how shut the battle is and what number of groups are concerned. In accordance with FiveThirtyEight’s analytical projections, the 18th-place finisher (in the mean time projected to be Bournemouth) will end with 35 factors, whereas the ultimate secure membership in 17th (at present projected to be Everton) will finish on 36 factors.

MORE: Premier League high goalscorers for 2022/23 season

Closest Premier League relegation battles

This 12 months has the potential to be one of many closest relegation battles in Premier League historical past. With two months left within the season, the 9 backside golf equipment have been all inside 4 factors of one another, with all 9 nonetheless shut sufficient to the hazard zone to probably fall by way of the entice door.

So how does that evaluate to different relegation battles within the historical past of the Premier League?

Within the 2013/14 season, the underside eight golf equipment all sat inside 10 factors of one another. West Ham in 13th place completed with 40 factors, whereas bottom-dweller Cardiff had 30 factors. That season it was Cardiff Metropolis, Fulham, and Norwich Metropolis who went right down to the Championship.

On solely three events since 2010 has the 17th-placed membership completed one level above the drop:

  • 2010/11: Wolves one level above 18th place (Birmingham Metropolis)
  • 2011/12: QPR one level above 18th place (Bolton)
  • 2019/20: Aston Villa one level above 18th & 19th place (Bournemouth & Watford)

The final time a membership prevented relegation by way of objective differential was Fulham in 2007/08, a season identified in membership lore as “The Nice Escape” given they received 4 of their final 5 matches. On the ultimate day, Studying pummeled hapless Derby County 4-Zero to enhance their objective differential to -25, however Fulham managed to beat Portsmouth 1-Zero on a 76th minute Danny Murphy objective (watch beneath) to stay afloat due to their -22 objective differential, which was simply three targets higher than Studying.

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The season earlier than (2006/07), Wigan survived in additional dramatic vogue, beating Sheffield United 2-1 on the ultimate day to sentence the Blades to the drop by a single objective differential (-22 vs. -23). That is the final time the Premier League has seen two golf equipment battle on the ultimate day in a winner-take-all relegation match.

That 2006/07 relegation battle stays the tightest in league historical past. Not solely did Wigan and Sheffield United come inside a single objective of one another (on objective differential), however 4 different golf equipment completed inside 5 factors of the drop. West Ham followers bear in mind this season fondly, as they received 4 video games in a row to complete three factors from relegation, a surprising near the season that ended with probably the most dramatic consequence of all of them, a 1-Zero victory over champions Manchester United on a objective by Carlos Tevez.

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