“This yr’s NCAA Match is vast open!”
What number of instances have you ever heard that one, solely to have a No. 1 seed shut the lane? March Insanity thrives on its first-round Cinderella tales, however the easiest way to win a bracket usually is to belief No. 1. That has been the case for the reason that NCAA Match expanded to 64 groups within the 1984-85 season.
Kansas gained the 2022 NCAA Match as a No. 1 seed, and the Jayhawks are among the many favorites to win this yr’s match, which ought to come as no shock.
MORE: Obtain a free, clean 2023 NCAA Match bracket PDF
Within the 37 seasons of the expanded bracket period, a No. 1 seed has gained the NCAA Match 24 instances. That features the final 5 champions: Kansas (2022), Baylor (2021), Virginia (2019), Villanova (2018) and North Carolina (2017). The Jayhawks doubtless would have doubtless been a No. 1 seed in 2020 as nicely had the match not been canceled due to COVID-19.
Thirty-eight of the 74 championship recreation members since 1985 have been No. 1 seeds. In different phrases, a No. 1 seed has made it to the ultimate recreation 51.Four % of the time.
MORE: Final information to March Insanity 2023
Here’s a take a look at previous statistical developments from the NCAA Match since 1985 to remind you to play the odds together with your bracket:
March Insanity bracket suggestions for 2023 NCAA Match
Odds to make the championship recreation, by seed
| Seed | Odds |
| 1 | 25.7% (38 of 148 No. 1 seeds) |
| 2 | 8.1% (12 of 148) |
| 3 | 7.4% (11 of 148) |
| 4 | 2.0% (Three of 148) |
| 5 | 2.0% (Three of 148) |
| 6 | 1.4% (2 of 148) |
| 7 | 0.7% (1 of 148) |
| 8 | 2.7% (Four of 148) |
Bracket tip: North Carolina was the exception to the rule final yr as a No. Eight seed that made the NCAA championship recreation. Follow the highest 4 seed strains when selecting a championship recreation. Sixty-four of the 74 championship recreation members (86.5 %) within the expanded subject period have been seeded No. Four or increased. The final two No. Eight seeds to advance to the championship recreation have been blue-bloods Kentucky (2014) and North Carolina (2022).
Odds to make the Last 4, by seed
| Seed | Odds |
| 1 | 40.5% (60 of 148) |
| 2 | 20.9% (31 of 148) |
| 3 | 12.2% (18 of 148) |
| 4 | 8.8% (13 of 148) |
| 5 | 4.7% (7 of 148) |
| 6 | 2.0% (Three of 148) |
| 7 | 2.0% (Three of 148) |
| 8 | 4.1% (6 of 148) |
| 9 | 0.1% (1 of 148) |
| 10 | 0.1% (1 of 148) |
| 11 | 3.4% (5 of 148) |
Bracket tip: That prime quantity is again once more: 82.Four % of Last 4 members (122 of 148) have been seeded No. Four or increased.
Watch the No. 2 seeds, too. At the very least considered one of them has made the Last 4 in every of the final three tournaments, and final yr had a pair with Duke and Villanova.
MORE: Full timeline of how the NCAA fills out the March Insanity bracket
The precise Cinderella story will put your bracket excessive. A crew seeded No. 5 or decrease has made the Last 4 in every of the final seven tournaments. That listing contains Michigan State (No. 7, 2015), Syracuse (No. 10, 2016), South Carolina (No. 7, 2017), Loyola Chicago (No. 11, 2018), Auburn (No. 5, 2019), UCLA (No. 11, 2021) and North Carolina (No. 8, 2022). It is OK to take a Cinderella in one of many areas. Selecting the correct one is the tough half.
Odds to make the Candy 16, by seed
| Seed | Odds |
| 1 | 85.1% (126 of 148) |
| 8 | 10.1% (14 out of 148) |
| 9 | 4.7% (7 out of 148) |
| 16 | 0% (Zero out of 148) |
| 2 | 62.8% (93 out of 148) |
| 7 | 18.9% (28 out of 148) |
| 10 | 16.2% (24 out of 148) |
| 15 | 2.0% (Three out of 148) |
| 3 | 52.0% (77 out of 148) |
| 6 | 29.1% (43 out of 148) |
| 11 | 17.6% (26 out of 148) |
| 14 | 1.4% (2 out of 148) |
| 4 | 47.3% (70 out of 148) |
| 5 | 33.8% (50 out of 148) |
| 12 | 14.9% (22 out of 148) |
| 13 | 4.1 (6 out of 148) |
Bracket tip: The brackets which have the cleanest Candy 16s are those which can be in one of the best place to win, however that is the toughest half. The 2021 and 2022 tournaments have been wild on the primary weekend. 4 double-digit seeds superior to the Candy 16 in every of these tournaments, and a No. 15 seed has made that around the final two years: match darlings Oral Roberts (2021) and Saint Peter’s (2022). In 2019, nevertheless, each No. 1, No. 2 and No. Three seed made the Candy 16.
Lowest seed to win the NCAA Match
Villanova is the bottom seed to win the NCAA Match. The Wildcats upset Georgetown 66-64 within the championship recreation in 1985, the primary yr of the expanded bracket. Villanova was a No. Eight seed that season.
Solely 9 different groups seeded decrease than No. Four have made the NCAA championship recreation. Kansas (No. 6, 1988) and UConn (No. 7, 2014) gained the nationwide championship.
MORE: Watch March Insanity video games reside with Sling TV
The opposite seven groups have been runners-up. Butler was a No. 5 seed in 2010 and a No. Eight seed in 2011. Michigan (No. 6, 1992), Florida (No. 5, 2000), Indiana (No. 5, 2002), Kentucky (No. 8, 2014) and North Carolina (No. 8, 2022) are the opposite groups.
Bracket tip: Thirty-four of the 37 NCAA champions since 1985 have been seeded No. Four or increased. Should you go decrease than that together with your champion, then the story you will be telling afterward will not contain profitable your bracket. Even this yr, it is a sensible wager to stay with a crew seeded No. Four or increased.
March Insanity winners by seed, 1985 by 2022
| Seed | Titles |
| 1 | 24 |
| 2 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 |
| 6 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 |
| 8 | 1 |
| 9 | 0 |
| 10 | 0 |
| 11 | 0 |
| 12 | 0 |
| 13 | 0 |
| 14 | 0 |
| 15 | 0 |
| 16 | 0 |
March Insanity upset odds, by seed matchup
We talked about these upsets by Oral Roberts and Saint Peter’s within the final two seasons. No. 16 UMBC beat No. 1 Virginia within the 2018 NCAA Match; that is the one time a No. 16 seed has knocked off a No. 1 seed. When selecting the first-round video games, it is necessary to know that may not occur once more for a very long time. Listed below are the profitable percentages for every of the first-round matchups since 1985:
| Seed matchup | Odds |
| 16 vs. 1 | 0.01% (1 out of 148) |
| 15 vs. 2 | 0.07% (10 out of 148) |
| 14 vs. 3 | 14.8% (22 out of 148) |
| 13 vs. 4 | 20.9% (31 out of 148) |
| 12 vs. 5 | 35.8% (53 out of 148) |
| 11 vs. 6 | 38.5% (57 out of 148) |
| 10 vs. 7 | 39.2% (58 out of 148) |
| 9 vs. 8 | 51.3% (76 out of 148) |
Bracket tip: Spend a substantial time researching the 8-9, 7-10 and 6-11 video games. They’re toss-up video games that may make a distinction late in your pool. Be liberal with the 5-12 upsets, too, however belief the No. 4s. There was not an upset by a No. 13 seed final season.
It is OK to go along with No. 9 seeds, figuring out they’ve gained extra video games in opposition to the No. Eight seeds traditionally. Three No. 9 seeds gained within the first spherical final yr.
Las Vegas odds to win the 2023 NCAA Match
This part can be up to date after Choice Sunday with the most recent odds for all the Area of 68.
