Who will win the Dwelling Run Derby? Odds, betting favorites, finest bets for MLB’s 2023 contest

Marine layer be damned, get able to see some dingers in Seattle.

Though MLB’s prime residence run hitter in Shohei Ohtani will not be collaborating on this 12 months’s Dwelling Run Derby, a few of baseball’s finest energy hitters shall be on show. Pete Alonso is searching for his third profession win in opposition to the likes of Luis Robert and 2022 breakout derby star Julio Rodriguez.

Different members embrace Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. making his return, Adolis Garcia of the Rangers, Randy Arozarena of the Rays, Mookie Betts of the Dodgers, and Adley Rutschman of the Orioles.

It is a aggressive area with lots to dwell as much as. Juan Soto received final 12 months’s occasion at Dodger Stadium with 19 residence runs in opposition to Rodriguez’s 18, with Albert Pujols making a shocking look in opposition to Kyle Schwarber and Soto (although he misplaced to the latter 16-15).

Can Alonso reclaim the throne? He can be the second three-time winner in MLB historical past, fittingly becoming a member of Mariners legend Ken Griffey Jr. Alonso is already in uncommon firm as one in every of 4 gamers to win a number of Dwelling Run Derbies, becoming a member of Griffey, Prince Fielder, and Yoenis Cespedes.

MORE: Newest MLB All-Star Recreation roster updates with Trout, Choose & extra sidelined

It is no shock, then, that he’s the odds-on favourite to win this 12 months. The sector has some professional challengers, however with Soto not collaborating this 12 months, Alonso is now the bat to beat.

Dwelling Run Derby odds 2023

All odds courtesy of Wager MGM.

Eight gamers are collaborating within the 2023 Dwelling Run Derby, and Alonso is main the pack in odds. He has 25 residence runs by way of June 6, tied with Robert for third-most within the league behind Ohtani (31) and Atlanta’s Matt Olson (29). He enters with +275 odds of profitable.

Robert and Guerrero are subsequent at +400 to win, with Robert coming in at 25 residence runs and Guerrero at 13 with a legendary exhibiting within the 2019 derby to bolster his odds. Garcia and Rodriguez are additionally within the dialog at +500 and +550, respectively.

Longshots to win embrace Arozarena (+900), Betts (+1000) and Rutschman (+2000). 

Dwelling Run Derby picks 2023

Greatest picks to win 2023 Dwelling Run Derby

Adolis Garcia (+500) Garcia deserves an excellent, laborious look because the potential winner of this 12 months’s Derby. The Rangers outfielder has a propensity to hit rockets, and his weak point — strikeouts on chases — is a non-factor within the batting observe setting.

Garcia is in MLB’s 91st percentile in laborious hit share, 93rd percentile in barrel share, and 91st percentile in common exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Whenever you hit the ball as laborious as Garcia does, it is laborious to select in opposition to him in one of these exhibition. As well as, if he will get by way of Arozarena within the first spherical, he would tackle the winner of Adley Rutschman and Luis Robert. That appears extra doable than the winner of Alonso vs. Rodriguez.

Julio Rodriguez (+550) Rodriguez is not having an unimaginable sophomore season in Seattle, however he is nonetheless completely scorching balls when he hits them. Much like Garcia, he has a chasing downside. And much like Garcia, when he will get a maintain of a ball, he is smoking it.

Rodriguez is hardly an unknown amount on this setting. He’ll be taking over Alonso within the first spherical of this 12 months’s Derby after beating him 31-23 in Spherical 2 final 12 months. Though Rodriguez misplaced to Soto within the finals, if he can get by way of Alonso and the winner of Betts-Guerrero, he has an actual shot in opposition to anybody on the opposite facet.

Rodriguez hit a complete of 81 homers in final 12 months’s showcase, and in his residence ballpark, he has an opportunity to copy that success. It will not be simple in opposition to this group, however to jot down him off regardless of being a seven seed can be folly. Have a look at what Pujols did final 12 months because the No. 8.

Greatest prop bets for the 2023 Dwelling Run Derby

High prop bets shall be posted as they grow to be accessible.

Successful participant, Nationwide League (+225): Wish to guess Alonso whereas taking a flier on Betts? That is the way in which to do it. The Nationwide League solely has two representatives within the Dwelling Run Derby this 12 months to the AL’s six, so the books are simply enjoying the numbers right here. Breaking it down additional: Each of these NL gamers are on one facet of the bracket. So there’s no less than an opportunity one in every of them makes the ultimate spherical, the place any variety of issues can occur.

What number of residence runs shall be hit within the 2023 Dwelling Run Derby?

This part shall be up to date when an over/below is ready.